Sergiy Gerasymchuk and Olexia Basarab commenting on the elections in Ukraine for CEPI
Both the rational and irrational motivations of voters led to Petro Poroshenko’s triumphant victory in the Ukrainian presidential elections. The rational motivation was that Ukraine desperately needed a fully operational commander-in-chief. The sooner Ukrainians elected a president, the sooner an effective antiterrorist operation could be unleashed. Whether this thesis was an invention of spin doctors or the crisis forced commonsense is hard to tell. But what resonated is that every extra day of electoral campaigning meant the loss of more Ukrainian lives.
Both the rational and irrational motivations of voters led to Petro Poroshenko’s triumphant victory in the Ukrainian presidential elections. The rational motivation was that Ukraine desperately needed a fully operational commander-in-chief. The sooner Ukrainians elected a president, the sooner an effective antiterrorist operation could be unleashed. Whether this thesis was an invention of spin doctors or the crisis forced commonsense is hard to tell. But what resonated is that every extra day of electoral campaigning meant the loss of more Ukrainian lives. All security and defense chiefs were “acting” rather than permanent, as they were appointed by interim president Turchynov. His lack of popularity and charisma contributed to making the defense measures dubious and unconvincing in the eyes of many in the East. Reshuffling the positions of power is the mandate of the president and his overwhelming first round victory sent a strong signal. However, expectations are very high and the actual capacity of the new government is hardly capable of meeting them in the short term.
In terms of irrational motivations, the circumstances of the unconventional conflict between Ukraine and Russia demanded a father figure for Ukraine. Poroshenko is a “family man” with four children and no scandals. He managed to tap into the country`s post-traumatic (Maidan, Crimea, military conflict in the East) society mentality. On the contrary, Yulia Tymoshenko, in jail till February, was believed to have formal partisan control over the government and acting president, yet campaigned as if she was in the opposition. She seems to have lost the political intuition which helped her reinvent herself previously. Her visit to Maidan after her release from jail was already full of false notes. The turning point came after the tragic Odessa events when Tymoshenko praised the work of the police whose chief was a political nominee of the Batkivshchyna party (he later managed to flee the country with the alleged help of the presidential administration chief of staff).
The road towards de-escalation leads to Crimea
The key challenge for the new president is undoubtedly the de-escalation of the military conflict in the East and stabilizing relations with Russia. This process leads to Crimea which – along with the gas deal – will be the main challenge in terms of bilateral relations. It is basically impossible for President Poroshenko to recognize the annexation of the peninsula while Russia will not agree to negotiate the status of the Crimea as it has been formalized as part of Russia. However, the fact that the Russian president limited his negative rhetoric towards Ukraine and the probability of recognizing the elections results opens a window of opportunity for negotiations. In the past Russia did its best to compromise Ukrainian leadership by keeping close contacts with the Kremlin and corrupted the Ukrainian elites to promote Ukraine as a failed state. By setting a semi-transparent agenda of cooperation with Kyiv, suggesting to Ukrainian decision makers shadow schemes in the field of economic cooperation and gas supplies, Moscow was keeping Ukraine in its orbit. Russia will keep the same pattern, and the question now is what will Ukraine`s new president do? Notwithstanding the president’s reaction, Kremlin propaganda will hint or herald undercover agreements to keep the West out of their comfort zone and thus out of the region. If the West swallows this, Kyiv will face Moscow alone.
Wor(l)ds Apart: Decentralization is not Federalization
According to Lilia Shevcova, analyst of the Carnegie Moscow Center, the term “federalization” is not acceptable to Ukraine, because it means meeting the demands of the Kremlin, Decentralizing power, however, would meet the demand of the regions. This reform is supervised by Deputy Prime-minister Volodymyr Groysman, the former mayor of Vinnytsia and a close ally of President Poroshenko. The word is that Groysman is the right man in the right place and will have the support of Poroshenko. Moreover, the government has the blessing and full support of international institutions. Preparations for fiscal decentralization, which is a key issue, is on the way between key local and international stakeholders such as the UN or OSCE. Good governance within the process of decentralization reform will be among the thematic objectives of new chapters of cross-border cooperation programs with the EU.
Parliamentary Elections: Infusion of New Blood?
Another challenge for the new president is the current parliament, elected in 2012 with numerous electoral frauds, with distinguished members of parliament “investing” to get immunity and/or access to rent seeking schemes. There is a need for just and transparent elections even though a lot more of these corrupted politicians will likely sneak back into the new parliament. Given the vested interest of many of the MPs to stay and the president`s lack of power to dissolve the parliament, this issue won’t be easy to resolve. Moreover, if a pro-presidential majority will be collected within the current parliament, then the president may not have the political will to pick such a fight. The security situation may be enough justification to postpone elections, a decision which may be supported even by international organizations.In this case the infusion of new blood into the parliament may bring the current tensions into the political framework. In the absence of political solutions, tensions will likely to continue to brew increasing the risk of a prolonged (military) conflict.